Sp Lisbon vs Alverca prediction

Sun 23 Aug 2026, 01:00 IST · Round 3 · Data: OK

Sp Lisbon vs Alverca Primeira Liga prediction for Sun 23 Aug 2026,. Underlying 1X2 lean is Sp Lisbon (61% home / 24% draw / 15% away). Model markets — Total Goals: Over 2.5 (93%); Corners: Alverca (more corners) (63%). In their last 2 meetings, Sp Lisbon have won 2, Alverca have won 0, with 0 draws. Educational ML estimate — not betting advice.

Prediction Insights

Safer Result No pick Neither the calibrated 70% double-chance bar nor the stricter 75% exact-win bar was cleared. Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 High 93% model

Corners Alverca (more corners) High 63% model

Model-derived leans only — not betting advice.

Underlying 1X2 probabilities

Sp Lisbon win: 61.4%

Draw: 23.8%

Alverca win: 14.8%

Highest 1X2 model score: Sp Lisbon. The actionable result pick, if one qualifies, is labelled Safer Result above.

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 47.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 93.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.78

More corners: Alverca (36.6% home / 63.4% away)

Live lineup data unavailable for this fixture.

Match context (form & H2H)

Sp Lisbon head into this match having won 3, drawn 2, and lost 0 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (DDWWW), scoring 15 and conceding 5 over that stretch.

Alverca head into this match having won 1, drawn 1, and lost 3 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (LWLDL), scoring 3 and conceding 5 over that stretch.

In their last 2 meetings, Sp Lisbon have won 2, Alverca have won 0, with 0 draws -- the most recent finished Alverca 1-4 Sp Lisbon.

Form and H2H come from this league's historical match data — the same training inputs, not a separate estimate.

Match Analysis

Scout-style context from squad stats, match history, and weather. It does not change the machine-learning probabilities shown below.

Players mapped to team form

Sp Lisbon's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.

Alverca's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.

Home / away ground

Sp Lisbon at home recently: 6W 1D 1L (2.38 pts/game), scoring 21 and conceding 8.

Alverca on the road recently: 1W 3D 4L (0.75 pts/game).

Measured home advantage for Sp Lisbon: +0.35 points vs neutral baseline.

Fair play

Sp Lisbon fair-play pulse: 1.7 yellows/game, 11.4 fouls/game over last 10.

Alverca: 1.4 yellows/game over last 10.

Underdog edge

Elo gap ~407 favors Sp Lisbon. In similar historical gaps, the underdog (Alverca) won outright 6% of the time (sample 381) — underdog edge is real but uncommon.

Attack & counter

Sp Lisbon recent profile: territorial / shot-volume attacking (3.0 GF / 1.0 GA per game, shot quality ~11.4).

Alverca: balanced attack/defence (0.6 GF / 1.0 GA).

Shot quality treats off-target shots as half an on-target shot.

Scout verdict

Scout synthesis: Sp Lisbon at home: 6W-1D-1L in last 8; Alverca away: 1W-3D-4L in last 8; similar Elo gaps historically see the underdog win outright ~6% of the time (n=381); Sp Lisbon profile leans territorial attack. Model lean (unchanged by this scout note): Sp Lisbon.